Destitutus ventis, remos adhibe (Latin proverb)
As a nation, we are embarking on—to put it mildly—an unfortunate political experiment. Through the electoral college, and against the popular vote, we have elected a president who is probably the least qualified ever to hold that office. And if that is not enough, the people with whom he surrounds himself are also questionably tethered to the realities of the world the rest of us live in. Some people are saying that the inmates are in charge of the asylum. The problem is that the majority of the rest of us, who clearly did not want to see Trump as president, are locked in here with them. Right now, the most important question to me is how badly will he and his cronies damage our country? And, next in importance, how much will we let them?
I respect the office, but I have zero respect for the person who is next to hold it. That respect has to be earned, and he’s begun in a hole so deep I don’t think he can climb out. I won’t waste time monitoring that progress. I am usually an optimist and look for the silver lining (lemonade and all that), but there are notably few here. Term limits would be nice to see, but I’m not holding my breath that Congress will pass anything there. Short-term market boosts from promises to cut taxes and revoke Dodd-Frank will appear. (Shouldn’t we be decreasing the likelihood of another global meltdown from the financial industry? And another round of tax cuts for the wealthy, another experiment with the utterly failed concept of trickle-down economics?) What suckers so many voters have been. I just wish that the forthcoming buyers’ remorse could be restricted to Trump’s supporters.
But I am not here to wag my finger at the voters who brought this about. We have bigger problems now. About 60.35 million voted for Trump; ~60.98 million voted for Clinton (updated at end). 46.9% of registered voters did not vote, and the U.S. has a population of 324.97 million. Yes, ~18.6% of the U.S. population, less than one in five, has set us on this course. There are several big problems right there. But we’re here, and we all need to work our way through it. I’d like to say work our way forward, but that will be true only in a time sense; we are going to go backwards in many other respects. I am a man of no party, but I find myself strongly against one now, at least at the national level.
We will begin this experiment from a negative start, in several ways. First, consider the negativity against so many people and against government itself. There is a lot of good in both, but much of that will get squashed in an orgy of righteousness. Then there are the negatives inherent in the incoming administration with respect to reality. Many of the promises made and desires expressed are blatantly against the Constitution. If pursued, these will likely initiate constitutional crises, as explained here and here.
Also, I am a scientist, and I look at an incoming president who has stated that climate change is a hoax and a vice president who doesn’t believe in evolution. Those positions defy reality and are scientifically indefensible. Let’s hope we can find some common ground to build on. Otherwise we’ll waste a lot of time squabbling fruitlessly and more people will eventually learn that you can’t deny realities like climate change and evolution without real life-and-death consequences. In some distant future we can have more power over these phenomena, but right now we have to work on mitigating the negative effects of both.
With Trump’s character being so outlandishly poor in so many respects, attacks on that character (ad hominem attacks) will be dismissed by his supporters along with the more important issues we carry along behind them. So we have to bypass that path, however tempting, and focus on the issues themselves. There are a number of things looming on the horizon that were not there before.
Here are some of the big issues that come to my mind as things we need to watch.
(And by “watch” I mean pay close attention and fight like hell for what is right.)
Who lies more? We can measure this stuff: http://mannmetrics.com/
• This incoming administration plays so fast and loose with reality, truth, and social mores that we’re likely to see ethical and legal transgressions on an unprecedented scale. Holding everyone accountable to the rule of law will be critical. And, yes, I hear some of you thinking the “Lock her up!” chant. We all need to recognize false equivalencies for what they are. They got us into trouble and shouldn’t—we can measure this stuff. For example, people call out Trump for being a liar; others respond well, Clinton lies too. Yep. Unfortunately, it’s a human trait—we all do. But the scale is important, and Trump is far and away in the lead. This is going to be an ongoing problem for the rest of us.
• Womens’ rights, the rights of minorities, and the rights of people who are different (e.g., handicapped, LGBT) will suffer. I also worry about social standards and the normalization of behaviors that erode civility and tolerance. I am strongly opposed to seeing this erosion. We need to uphold our values and live them. I am not suggesting we need thought police. Think whatever you want. But those who are purposefully hurtful to other people need to be called on it and ostracized or jailed, as appropriate. We have these things called the Declaration of Independence (e.g., “all men are created equal,” etc.) and the Bill of Rights (“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.” etc.). In addition, we have over two centuries of subsequent progress on how we should treat each other.
• Further U.S. progress on mitigating the effects of climate change are on hold, exacerbating the toll.
• We’re already revisiting the re-implementation of torture.
• In ordinary times, a partisan FBI and Russian hacking would dominate the news and the to-do list of government. Oh, the good old days.
• We could be in another hot war, probably with Iran, in the next few years. It would be highly beneficial to large numbers of lives if our disagreements could continue to be settled through diplomacy. The likelihood of nuclear weapons being used just went up.
• We’re not getting most of those jobs back from China; the ones we can are already coming. And Mexico’s share of illegal immigration has been declining for years. Historically, these were important issues. Increasing the time and money focused on them now is probably wasted.
• Natural gas killed coal. Technology has depressed manufacturing and other jobs. Trade can too, even while overall being a win-win for trading partners. Let’s do cost-benefit analyses, sure, but let’s focus on solutions, not try to wind the clock back. Markets and economies change. Let’s be proactive and train workers for the 21st century economy.
We spend way too much on health care. See the recent leveling off in the rate of increase? That’s the ACA. Now we need to bring it down. Graph from www.commonwealthfund.org.
• American health care will get worse, not better. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) is an imperfect attempt to curb the outrageous costs of the U.S. health care system. While it has slowed the growth rate of cost increases, we still pay more and get less bang-for-buck than any developed country. (In fact, we grossly outspend other developed countries and have lower life expectancy to boot!) Under the Trump administration we’re likely to remove the band aid and re-open the wound so more health-care dollars hemorrhage into the pockets of big corporations rather than make Americans healthier. So many other countries have demonstrated that this can be done with far greater efficiency than we do it; we’re almost certainly going to go backwards here. And among the first signs that buyers’ remorse is just around the corner is Paul Ryan’s proposal to privatize Medicare. Talk about skewering your loyal voters straight in the heart. Get used to it.
• Re-investing in our national infrastructure is much needed (but would have finally happened under either administration). Privatizing transportation infrastructure like highways and bridges is not a good answer, because we wind up paying more for it.
• We were not given a choice about having a look at Trump’s taxes. But we do know that his conflicts of interest in his businesses with foreign powers are huge, and those have to be dealt with because they can be effectively used by foreign powers to influence our government. Similarly, he and his family have major conflicts of interest in leading government and running their businesses simultaneously. Ideally, they would put their businesses into a blind trust while they governed, and at least that seems to be being discussed.
We spend an exorbitant amount on our military. We can probably seek some economies there. Graph from www.brookings.edu.
• We don’t need to increase our military budget. We should be looking for ways to decrease it. “The United States spends more on defense than the next seven countries combined.”
• The vaunted Republican goal of lowering the deficit, conveniently abandoned during the last Republican administration, by the way, is much less likely to be achieved under Trump’s economic plan. Increasing economic disparities among Americans is not the way to square this issue, although these will be among the first solutions proposed.
• Mollycoddling of dictators.
• Further decline in sensible restrictions on gun ownership.
That’s a long list of big issues—serious headwinds. More than I think we would have had if the election had gone the other way. Despondency is not the answer for those who opposed this campaign. Nor is jubilation if your side won; it is unlikely you will get what you hoped for. And nor is sitting on the sidelines or not being informed or not voting. The answer is to fight every single day for what is right, legally and morally. Just because we’re headed into a dry spell of leadership in those areas doesn’t change who we are as individuals and as a people. Nor should we acquiesce to the Republican party’s platform, many planks of which are extreme and do not reflect the opinions of the majority of Americans. Reinstate Glass-Steagall? Absolutely. Overturn the Supreme Court decision on same-sex marriage? Push for Bible study in public schools? No. Nobody’s religious views should be foisted off on the rest of the country, especially through government. Nor should we accept policies that increase income disparities in the country, one of the fundamental reasons people are so unhappy with the status quo (though things were finally improving).
I am not nearly as pessimistic as Andrew Sullivan. There’s a lot of drama out there (though to be fair, he is a member of a persecuted group). My feeling is that in a local respect our personal, tiny pocket of the universe here in Fairbanks, Alaska is not going to be hugely affected by this pending federal administration. Part of that is white privilege, and part is that our state economy is so terrible right now that we have much bigger problems at hand. But as engaged citizens of the country and the world, Rose and I cringe at the pending damage to our country and its institutions that we’re pretty confident this incoming administration will cause. Our resilience will be tested, as will yours.
So take to the oars. And remember that they can be used in many ways.
Updating the final voting results: Clinton trounced Trump in the popular vote by more than 2%: 65,853,516 Clinton versus 62,984,825 Trump. If you add up all the voters who voted against Trump, the difference is even more profound: 65,853,516 + 7,804,213 = 53.9% of voters did not vote for Trump.
I started cleaning up my bookmarks on this dreary Friday afternoon and came upon this that I saved when it was published. Geez…..you were right on so many things. Our president (not upper case on purpose) has exceeded our most horrible expectations bigly. The good news is that the resistance is strong. Trump will either explode or implode one way or other. Thanks for the insightful dialogue.
Thanks, Mary Lou. Glad you find it useful. I missed the magnitude of the Russia connections, though, which could well speed the failure of the whole house of cards. I’ve never phoned my representatives as often as I have this year, and I’m sure this pace will continue.
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Good thoughts on the issues at hand. In the comments I see a ‘repeal and replace’ attitude towards the ‘system’ which demonizes gov’t.. People slept through their civics and history classes, apparently. Gov’t. is YOU. You have to pay attention to the issues and then use your civic tools and vote. The 1 out of 5 voters who made the presidential decision for you are a reflection of the way things go locally in Alaska…at least here in the Matsu Borough. What’s broken is not the gov’t., but, the people who don’t use it. I blame Reagan for demonizing the gov’t. because both sides bought this argument. Actually, this now makes it easier to blame the DNC, Clinton et al for the loss and not the typical, privileged progressive who wanted perfection in their candidate. So, they stayed home, voted 3rd party protest, or voted Trump protest…just to show us ‘YOU SHOULD’VE GIVEN US BERNIE!’ I loved Bernie. I voted for Clinton. Bernie is not the messiah. Given the conservative smear spotlight shining on his every breathing moment of life, he may not have survived against Trump either.
I agree, Brooke. While there are many improvements to be made in government, there are also core great things that require fine tuning, not upsetting (like upholding the Constitution). And we all need to be involved so we don’t have these disruptive changes that pit large numbers against each other. Not sure how we might get there, but a Clinton win would have made change more incremental. I don’t think Bernie would have won against Trump supporters, but that’s history now. More participation in the primary process would help, too.
I reject the notion that somehow we can blame the public for the state of our government.
It was a failure, a flaw of government that allowed this to happen.
It was not a failure of the public, we used all the tools and processes available to us in our constitution.
The checks and balances provided and required by our constitution simply failed to deliver the equitable self governance promised by the Declaration of Independence.
Failure, not success. It was flawed from the moment it was ratified. It will continue to fail as long as it is left in current form. The process outlined in that document is flawed. The INTENTION is correct, but the mechanics don’t work.
It’s as if they made a wheel octagonal, not round. It NEEDS to be round.
In my mind, people pay way too much attention trying to fix the election process, and I am much more concerned about fixing the results of that process.
What we DO know how to do, is diagnose and troubleshoot complex systems.
We also know how to do testing on those systems for efficiency and efficacy.
What systems am I talking about?
Our social tools. Government and economy.
GET those fixed. Government first, then economy.
Seems that many people recognize that there are increasing unsolved problems, and a LOT of diverse notions about how to go about solving those problems.
Yet, it should seem obvious that the FIRST priority is to to develop a decision process that lets us actually define and solve problems.
Really, consider that every election cycle we sit around sweating over the results, pinning our hopes and dreams on a favorable outcome, and we do this like some gambling addict in Vegas.
“If only we win this election, we can start fixing things.”
Compared to:
“One more pull of this handle, and if it hits, I can pay my rent.”
Well, that’s the problem isn’t it. We use a system that forces the public to play casino circus games to attempt resolution to real world problems.
You understand what casino circus games are right??
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, but the house always wins.
The systems we use are failing, dismally to resolve the conflicts of modern society.
We need to fix the process we use to consider and enact resolutions, because what we use now ain’t working.
http://45ink.com/wp/4-branches-detailed/
Yep. And we need to do it within the framework of the Constitution and subsequent law. I’d like to see a big rally to a “We Get Shit Done” party, where people work together to solve our complex issues in ways fair to all.
I question the need to make changes within the framework of our current constitution.
I see our constitution as THE problem.
I do agree that a vast majority of the public would need to ratify any change in our form of government, and I would oppose any attempt to force or incite a violent change by a group smaller than a vast majority.
However, WITH a vast majority, I see no need whatsoever to use a failed process to adopt a better system of self governance.
As a scientist, you understand the relationship between cause and effect – natural gas extraction, not the Obama administration, killed coal. It will be interesting to see if we as a people will hold Trump as “accountable” as we held his predecessor.
A substantial proportion of the electorate refuses to hold him accountable for anything, leaving more work for the rest of us.
Lovely, thank you.
Exactly how are we supposed to fight? The Republicans control everything right now and regardless of how vigilant we are “everyday” it doesn’t amount to a hill of beans if we are simply sharing our info with like minded people. I am a single mother of 3 very bright young women (ages 23-34) and for the last 10 years I have warned about the eroding of Roe v Wade and the sly, mostly quiet way the Republicans have gone after civil and reproductive rights. My frustration and fear is that young people simply do not want to engage in a political system that they feel is outdated and rigged. They have always preferred to get their news from Jon Stewart and tune out the rest of the media and news that doesn’t affect them directly. Maybe now that things will start falling apart they will step up? In the meantime, other than organizing and working towards a change in the next elections (2 years) how exactly are we supposed to fight every day?
Hi, Sharon — all good questions. We’re all going to have to find answers, find our oars, and find a way to use them. There will be many ways.
Our systems are failing, dismally, to manage or resolve the conflicts, drama and issues we face as a nation and a species.
This is not a failure that can be resolved by electing the right people, the election process does not work that way.
The failure can only by resolved by fixing the system which relies on electing the right people. By replacing that system, with one that works adequately regardless of how inept and corrupted the people are, and which works wonderfully when the right people are involved.
What we use now, does not work, adequately, even if all the right people are involved, and fails miserably when the wrong people get elected.
https://www.facebook.com/testing4branch/
Also, remember that our elected representatives represent all of us. Make your voice heard there, too.
Thank you for this.. Many of us are still in shock with the Trump win and while many call for his impeachment, I believe that Pence is a far greater monster.. You have given us much good information and we must fight in any way possible for the rights of all..
I can vouch for the privatization of road construction/public works projects is WAY more expensive than keeping it in house. I work for a State DOT purchasing property for Highway Projects, and when the work gets contracted out (sometimes we have private firms do staking, so we purchase but have contractors do some of the work), we get such an inferior product, that we end up having to send our own people back out to fix it. Even my hardcore Republican coworkers (I live in a southern state, so most of them) see that as a HUGE issue, because they see the bleeding of tax revenue for mess that we just have to go back out and redo ourselves. Hell, a lot of our highway plans come back to us without so much as the buildings and improvements being shown on them. Then our appraisals take more than 6 months to get back after the request, with glaring errors that we have to redline adjust.
Sad to hear the gritty details, RST. Worse than I imagined.
Brilliant and informational. I’m especially fond of that last line.
Thank you.
excellent article
Tennyson’s ‘Ulysses’ comes to mind:
“Tho’ much is taken, much abides; and tho’
We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.”
Excellent! It’s been too long since I’ve read that.
Thank you for this concise and informative article. I agree with you. It may be a long 4 years, and we have to fight effectively and focus on the important issues.
Well stated as usual. looking for my oars. Jim, what are you doing in 2020?